Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,279,879$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,200,346.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,200,346.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $119,969$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,873.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(115,873.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,537,777$ on 2020-06-21

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,078$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,911.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(101,911.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,482$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(994 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,358.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,358.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,347$ on 2020-06-21

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $180,545$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{274,306.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.4)}}\) (asimptote \(274,306.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,825$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(566 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,803.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 76.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,803.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,225$ on 2020-06-21

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,030$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,774.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,774.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $501$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(45.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{530.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 66.7)}}\) (asimptote \(530.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,170$ on 2020-06-21

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,677$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,046.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,046.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $662$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(111 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{616.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(616.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,877$ on 2020-06-21

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,769$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(167 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,077.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(57,077.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $363$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(24.1 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{563.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 76.4)}}\) (asimptote \(563.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,113$ on 2020-06-21

Guatemala

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,145$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,142.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(23,142.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $531$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{725.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 71.1)}}\) (asimptote \(725.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,903$ on 2020-06-21

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,626$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,864.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 73.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,864.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 92.5)}}\) (asimptote \(236.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,993$ on 2020-06-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Cuba recovered 85%
Canada recovered 19%

Cuba

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,312$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(570 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,159.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,159.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(26.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(83.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $124$ on 2020-06-21