Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,279,879$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,200,346.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,200,346.5\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $119,969$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,873.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(115,873.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,537,777$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,078$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,911.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(101,911.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,482$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(994 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,358.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,358.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,347$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $180,545$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{274,306.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.4)}}\) (asimptote \(274,306.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $21,825$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(566 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,803.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 76.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,803.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,225$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,030$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,774.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,774.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $501$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(45.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{530.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 66.7)}}\) (asimptote \(530.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,170$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,677$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,046.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,046.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $662$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(111 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{616.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(616.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,877$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,769$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(167 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,077.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(57,077.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $363$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(24.1 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{563.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 76.4)}}\) (asimptote \(563.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,113$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,145$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,142.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(23,142.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $531$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{725.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 71.1)}}\) (asimptote \(725.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,903$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,626$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,864.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 73.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,864.1\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $98$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 92.5)}}\) (asimptote \(236.8\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,993$ on 2020-06-21
